Ronald Stöferle, der sehr erfahrene Fund Manager und Aktienanalyst bei incrementum, schreibt über Einschätzungen zur aktuellen Marktlage (Englisch).
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
All Things Must Pass, launched in November 1970, was the first solo studio album by George Harrison after the Beatles' break-up.
Investment Committee Meetings
Every week at our investment committee meetings, my partners and I talk about the markets and potential unique investment opportunities. We are always taking minutes on our conclusions, and when I look at the previous minutes again from time to time, I see that we are pretty cautious and critical of the price excesses on stock- and other markets.
There is no question that another crash will occur, All things must pass, eventually. It is and it has always been part of the game. The timing, however, is not so easy to predict. We think that there is still an enormous amount of liquidity in the system and that this liquidity will prevent an immediate crash. Still, volatility may increase for some weeks and even months. Any exchange is a market where among other things, greed and fear play a role. As I keep repeating, nothing comes for free, especially not (excessive) financial return potential in a 0% government bond yield environment.
The Price Investors have to pay
The price for such (excessive) financial return potential is volatility. However, volatility is not necessarily something wrong or bad. Volatility is just a measure of the ups and downs of prices and also offers chances. My partner Mark successfully manages an Incrementum product where «volatility harvesting» adds a significant part to the entire portfolio's returns.
This week I read a piece of research and was impressed by a rather blunt yet reasonable statement I would like to share with you. The author of the report asked his readers not" to make the mistake of mixing timeframes, as Washington has a more extended duration outlook than Wall Street", which seems obvious but sometimes also seems to get forgotten so easily.
Washington, i.e. the lawmakers, are most probably (and hopefully) not thinking in quarters but decades. I know, I mentioned many times in all sorts of publications that politicians all too often make decisions with upcoming elections in mind. I still believe this is true. However, I (maybe naively) believe in democracies' more or less functioning when it comes to lasting investment decisions.
Quelle: Incrementum AG